Monday, October 6

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NFL

Minnesota (1-3 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (2-2, 3-1 ATS)

The Saints porous defense figures to be tested when the Vikings bring the NFL's second-leading rusher to the Superdome for a Monday night NFC showdown.

New Orleans has the league's fifth-worst defense this season and has allowed 1,488 total yards, including 122.8 rushing yards per game. The Saints have been outrushed in three of four games this season, with the only exception coming at home last week when they held the Niners to just 312 total yards, including 91 on the ground, in a 31-17 win as four-point favorites.

Drew Brees has been sensational for New Orleans, averaging a league-high 327.3 passing ypg and ranking third in the NFL with a 106.9 passer rating. He threw for 363 yards and three TDs against San Francisco last week.

Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson has the burden of carrying his team's offense, which struggles in the passing game. Peterson, who rushed 1,341 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie last year, has amassed 420 yards on the ground through four games, including netting 80 in last week's 30-17 loss in Tennessee, with the Vikings coming up short as three-point dogs.

The Vikings have won three straight matchups (3-0 ATS) with New Orleans going back to 2002, and they are 6-1 in the last seven meetings (5-2 ATS) dating back to 1995. The last time these two met was in 2005 when Minnesota prevailed 33-16 as a four-point road chalk.

Brad Childress' Vikings are in ATS slumps of 1-6 overall, 2-5 on the highway and 1-4 following a non-cover. Meanwhile, New Orleans is on pointspread slides of 7-16-1 in the Superdome, 3-8 following a spread-cover, 4-9 against teams with a losing record and 0-4 in Week 5.

New Orleans has struggled at home under the Monday night lights, going 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS), including a loss to Tennessee in Week 3 last year, while the Vikings are 10-17 SU (12-14-1 ATS) on the road on Mondays.

For Minnesota, the over is on runs of 8-0 in Week 5 games, 10-3-1 after an ATS loss and 7-3 on artificial turf, but the Vikings have stayed under the total in eight of their last 10 on Monday night. The Saints sport nothing but over trends, including 8-0-1 overall, 14-3-1 against NFC competition, 6-0-1 at home and 6-0-1 after a spread-cover. Also, all five Monday night games this season have soared over the total, and the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven regular-season meetings between these teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

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